What is Double Thinking?
Double thinking is the ability to recognize two conflicting realities and navigate them effectively. It is a skill that great negotiators use to understand their counterpart’s position while maximizing their own advantage.
In Trump’s case, double thinking helps us recognize that:
- He is both a disruptor and a pragmatist.
- His strategies are both effective and risky.
- His America First policy could make the U.S. stronger—or isolate it.
By applying double thinking, we avoid simplistic, black-and-white conclusions and see the nuances of his decisions.
1. Trump as a Negotiator: Allies – Free Riders or Strategic Partners?
Trump believes that many of America’s allies have taken advantage of U.S. generosity, especially when it comes to defense spending. His stance on NATO, Japan, South Korea, and Canada follows a negotiation strategy of leverage—forcing allies to contribute more or risk losing U.S. protection.
Double Thinking in Action:
✔️ Rational View: If U.S. allies increase their defense budgets, the U.S. saves money while maintaining influence.
❌ Risky View: Weakening NATO and U.S. security guarantees could create power vacuums that Russia and China exploit.
Trump’s Negotiation Strategy:
- If NATO steps up, Trump’s tough stance will be validated.
- If allies fail to respond, NATO weakens, and Russia gains ground—potentially making the world less stable.
This approach forces allies to make a choice: Will they step up and meet his demands, or will they test whether Trump is bluffing?
2. Trade: A Hard-Nosed Negotiation or Economic Isolation?
Trump’s trade policies are based on the idea that past trade deals have favored foreign competitors at the expense of American workers. His solution? Tariffs on China, renegotiating NAFTA into the USMCA, and rebalancing trade relationships—all of which reflect a zero-sum negotiating style.
Double Thinking in Action:
✔️ Rational View: Tariffs force China, the EU, and Mexico to negotiate better trade deals that benefit American workers.
❌ Risky View: Trade wars could increase costs for American consumers and businesses, making goods more expensive.
Trump’s Negotiation Strategy:
- If tariffs lead to better deals, the U.S. wins by strengthening domestic industry.
- If tariffs trigger retaliation, U.S. exporters suffer, and the economy slows.
This economic gamble is based on the idea that short-term pain (tariffs, trade disruption) leads to long-term gain (better trade deals, re-industrialization). However, if competitors adjust by trading more with each other (China-EU, China-Russia, EU-Latin America), the U.S. could end up isolated.
3. Military Spending: Tactical Investment or Overreach?
Trump has increased defense spending while simultaneously criticizing military commitments abroad. He argues that the U.S. should have the strongest military but should not act as the world’s police force.
Double Thinking in Action:
✔️ Rational View: Building a stronger military while reducing unnecessary foreign commitments saves money and strengthens U.S. power.
❌ Risky View: Pulling back from military commitments in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia could invite aggression from adversaries.
Trump’s Negotiation Strategy:
- If the U.S. remains militarily dominant but avoids unnecessary wars, it saves resources and projects power efficiently.
- If the U.S. withdraws too much, rivals like Russia (Europe), China (Asia), and Iran (Middle East) could exploit the power vacuum.
This is a classic negotiation dilemma: How do you maintain leverage while reducing costs? If Trump pulls back too far, he may lose the leverage he seeks to protect.
Final Takeaways: What Trump’s Strategy Teaches About Negotiation
Whether in geopolitics, business, or high-stakes diplomacy, Trump’s approach mirrors real-world negotiation tactics. Here are three key lessons:
✔️ 1. The Power of Double Thinking in Negotiation
- Great negotiators see both sides while pushing their own advantage.
- Trump pressures NATO and trade partners—sometimes successfully, sometimes at a cost.
✔️ 2. Negotiation as a Global Superpower
- The U.S. under Trump acts like a hard-nosed negotiator, treating allies like business partners rather than long-term friends.
- This works if the U.S. retains leverage but fails if allies seek alternative partnerships.
✔️ 3. What If the World Starts Using Trump's Playbook?
- If Europe, China, and Russia start negotiating with the U.S. the way Trump negotiates with them, will America still have the upper hand?
- Great negotiators anticipate how the other side will react, which is where double thinking becomes critical.
The Final Double Think: Genius or Gamble?
Trump’s "America First" approach is a high-stakes geopolitical negotiation.
✔️ If it succeeds:
- The U.S. gains better trade deals.
- Allies contribute more to defense.
- America remains dominant without unnecessary costs.
❌ If it fails:
- NATO weakens, allowing Russia to expand.
- Trade wars hurt the U.S. economy while rivals deepen alliances.
- The U.S. loses global influence as allies turn elsewhere.
Ultimately, Trump is betting that the world needs the U.S. more than the U.S. needs the world. Whether he’s right depends on how his negotiation plays out.
About the Author and Scotwork Sweden
This article was written by Christopher Bell Blomquist, in collaboration with Scotwork Sweden AB, a global leader in negotiation skills consultancy.
Just as successful negotiations require understanding both sides of an argument, applying double thinking allows us to see Trump’s policies as both strategic and risky—helping us navigate complex global decisions with clarity.
For more insights on negotiation, strategy, and global affairs, visit www.scotwork.se—where we help businesses and leaders master the art of negotiation in an unpredictable world.
Final Thought: Why Negotiation Skills Matter More Than Ever
Trump’s global strategy is one giant negotiation—one where allies, rivals, and trade partners are forced to make difficult choices. In an era where power is shifting, economies are realigning, and leaders are redefining alliances, the ability to think strategically, anticipate responses, and negotiate effectively is more valuable than ever.
At Scotwork Sweden, we help businesses and leaders master negotiation, so they can thrive in uncertain times—whether in the boardroom, in diplomacy, or on the global stage.